NEWSinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 14 Sept: It’s a Wrap: Oil tops $100 as higher yields and AI worries pressure stocks
AI and chip stocks tumble as weekend warnings challenge the sector’s growth assumptions Trump: AI will be the greatest economic development engine in history US seeks “step-by-step” agreement with Iran citing Pakistani sources Trump: Military conflict with Iran "will not be long" Zelensky says Trump's deal to stop energy strikes is just a proposal Trump: Ukraine and Russia have agreed not to hit energy targets Is Institutional Money Rotating From Bitcoin to Ethereum? US 10-year yield hits 5% for the first time since 2023 Crude oil Analysis: Technicals and the fundamentals are in synch. Move higher nears $105 Saudi east-west pipeline will be out of service for 3-5 weeks - report Canada August CPI 3.0% y/y vs 3.0% expected Morning Kickstart: Central-bank week begins with the USD higher and stocks under pressure investingLive European markets wrap: Oil surges, Fed rate hike bets rise as AI fears hit stocks The trading week began with several significant market themes competing for traders’ attention: crude oil running up to near $105 rising. Treasury yields with the 10 year reaching above 5.0% (it reached 5.01%). Renewed selling in AI-related shares and continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East. Not a good BINGO card. The USD finished higher against all the major currencies. Its largest gains came against the NZD and JPY, while its smallest advances were against the GBP and CHF. The percentage changes of the USD against the major currencies were: NZD: +0.69% JPY: +0.54% EUR: +0.45% AUD: +0.43% CAD: +0.25% GBP: +0.16% CHF: +0.16% The greenback benefited from higher Treasury yields and a risk-off tone in equities (probably because yields were going higher). With the market now pricing in 100% for the Fed on Wednesday, and the 10 year yield moving to 5% maybe the cat is now fully out of the bag (i.e. it is all priced in). However, what is Fed Chair Warsh and the Fed members are thinking for the rest of the meetings in 2026 in October and December remains the wild card. Having said that, the secondary impact from higher oil prices can lead to more cost/push inflation. Treasury yields move higher Treasury yields rose across most of the curve, led by the intermediate maturities: 2-year yield: 4.6621%, +1.8 basis points 5-year yield: 4.8257%, +3.5 basis points 10-year yield: 4.9936%, +1.9 basis points. 30-year yield: 5.3543%, little changed Today, the 10-year Treasury yield' move above 5% was last accomplished intraday on October 23, 2023, when it reached approximately 5.02%. U.S. stocks close lower as AI shares tumble The major U.S. indices finished lower, but the relatively modest index declines did not tell the entire story. Selling was much more severe in semiconductor, networking and data-center-related companies. Dow industrial average: -0.29% S&P 500: -0.48% Nasdaq Composite: -0.56% Russell 2000: -0.40% Nasdaq 100: approximately -0.8% Some of the largest individual declines included: Corning: -13.70% Astera Labs: -11.74% Lumentum: -9.92% Arm Holdings: -9.74% GE Vernova: -8.62% Ciena: -8.55% Super Micro Computer: -8.38% Lam Research: -8.29% Credo Technology: -7.94% Vertiv: -7.65% SK Hynix: -7.60% Eaton: -7.57% Monolithic Power Systems: -7.39% Marvell Technology: -7.32% ASML: -7.25% Applied Materials: -7.07% The weekend’s AI news about slowing down the progress, intensified questions about the enormous amount of capital flowing into chips, data centers and related infrastructure. President Trump reiterated his support for maintaining U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence (China will do it if we do now), but that longer-term bullish argument was not enough to offset today’s concerns about valuations, competition and prospective returns on AI spending. For investors, the lesson is that the performance of the major indices can sometimes hide considerable weakness beneath the surface. The Nasdaq Composite declined only 0.56%, but many of the companies most closely connected to the AI buildout suffered losses of 7% or more. European indices finish mostly lower European shares also came under pressure, although the U.K. FTSE 100 managed to close higher: German DAX: -0.50% France CAC: -0.76% U.K. FTSE 100: +0.44% Spain Ibex: -1.38% Italy FTSE MIB: -1.68% Crude oil holds above $100 Crude oil rose $1.81, or 1.81%, to $101.86. Developments surrounding a possible preliminary agreement involving the United States, Iran and Oman offered some hope that tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz could eventually ease. However, there was still no completed agreement, while threats and broader regional risks remained. As a result, traders were unwilling to remove the geopolitical premium from oil. The market continues to balance the possibility of diplomatic progress against the risk of prolonged shipping disruptions and reduced export flexibility in the region. Higher oil prices also have implications beyond the energy market. If crude remains above $100, it can lift transportation and production costs, complicate the...
Sep 14, 2026
