Market Intelligence — Fino Groups LTD

Forex News

Real-time coverage of the events that move currency markets.

NEWSOct 30, 2026

investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: Binance hack shakes crypto

BoJ declares underlying inflation at 2% target, lifts FY2027 price forecast as rates held BoJ keeps policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, as expected (Some good news!) Treasuries rally as AI selloff drives flight to safety, 10-year yield at one-month low Amazon and Intel results deepen worries over AI boom costs as tech, chip stocks slide PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7138 (vs. estimate at 6.6548) Chainalysis estimates $5.9B stolen in suspected Binance hack, nearly 4 times Bybit Binance halts deposits and withdrawals, pledges to cover all losses from suspected hack Ukraine reportedly pauses strikes on Russian refineries after US pressure Vessel on fire in Strait of Hormuz after incident near Oman, cause "unknown" (LOL) Japan September factory output beats forecasts, but retail sales disappoint ahead of BoJ ANZ lifts year-end Brent forecast to $105 as tight physical market persists Tokyo October CPI 2.8% (2.7% expected) Binance pauses withdrawals after suspected $3B+ hack as Tether, Circle freeze $2.4B Nvidia in talks to guarantee Nscale debt tied to $45 billion Anthropic compute deal Morgan Stanley’s Wilson sees one final sell-off before US stock correction ends RBA set for back-to-back hike after hot CPI, says Natixis’ Garcia Herrero ING lifts AUD/USD target to 0.71 as it backs a 25bp RBA hike next week ECB to hike once more in December as tighter conditions may not suffice: Deutsche Bank Intel earnings call: 18A progress and data centre growth offset by PC slump and cash burn Binance appears hacked, CZ says, as Tether and Circle freeze $1.79B in stablecoins Tether freezes $971M USDT amid suspected Binance hack as crypto sells off Earnings bloodbath: Intel crashes over 22%, Amazon over 12%. What's coming next? Intel shares tumble around 15%. The narrative is --> weak Q4 guidance overshadows Q3 profit beat Nasdaq leads stocks lower; Intel and Amazon tumble after hours investingLive Americas market news wrap: ECB holds, sources report says December hike Summary: Equities: Asian stocks fell after weak Amazon and Intel results deepened concern over AI costs. The KOSPI fell 4.9% after a sidecar halted programme trading, and the Nikkei lost 2.5%, while the Hang Seng rose 1.4%. Bonds: US Treasuries rallied, taking the 10-year yield to around 4.90%, a one-month low. BoJ: The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with Takata seeking a hike. It said underlying inflation is consistent with its 2% target and will more than double ETF sales from 2027. The yen firmed modestly. Oil: Prices rose after a vessel fire in the Strait of Hormuz, but gains were capped by diplomatic hopes. Ukraine has reportedly paused refinery strikes. Crypto: Binance suspended deposits and withdrawals after a suspected hack and pledged to cover losses. About $2.5 billion has been frozen. BNB fell 8.6% and bitcoin dropped to near $77,700. Asian equities fell sharply on Friday, led by South Korea, as disappointing results from Amazon and Intel deepened concern over the cost of the artificial intelligence boom. A suspected hack at cryptocurrency exchange Binance rattled digital asset markets, and the Bank of Japan signalled growing confidence that inflation has reached its target. South Korea bore the brunt of the selling. The Korea Exchange activated a sidecar on the KOSPI after KOSPI 200 futures fell 5%, halting programme trading for five minutes. The KOSPI closed down 4.9% and the KOSDAQ lost 4.3%. Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.5% and China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.8%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bucked the trend to rise 1.4%. US equity index futures also traded lower in Globex trade. The pressure stemmed from US earnings released after Thursday’s close. Amazon shares fell about 7% in after-hours trading after it forecast holiday-quarter sales below expectations. Intel dropped around 18% after issuing weak fourth-quarter guidance and warning of falling PC demand. The selling spread to AI cloud providers, PC makers and chipmakers. US Treasuries rallied as investors sought safety, with the 10-year yield falling to around 4.90%, its lowest in more than a month. In Japan, the Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of a hike to 1.5%. In its quarterly Outlook Report, the central bank said underlying inflation is now generally consistent with its 2% target. It described risks to prices as skewed to the upside and raised its core inflation forecast for fiscal 2027 to 2.6%. It also agreed to more than double the pace of its ETF sales from January 2027. The yen firmed modestly after the announcement. Earlier, Tokyo core inflation for October came in at 2.6%, in line with forecasts. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference later in the day will be watched for signals on a December hike. Oil prices rose after a vessel caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz following an incident northeast of Oman, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency, which said...

NEWSOct 30, 2026

(Some good news!) Treasuries rally as AI selloff drives flight to safety, 10-year yield at one-month low

Lower Treasury yields ease financing costs across the curve, offering some relief to rate-sensitive sectors and to the AI firms whose borrowing has worried investors. That makes the bond rally partly self-correcting for the very stress that triggered it. A softer dollar supports Asian currencies and commodities priced in dollars. Oil remains the main threat to the rally: with Brent heading for a fourth straight monthly gain, any escalation in the Iran conflict could quickly revive inflation fears and push yields back up. The BoJ decision later today is the next test, and a hawkish surprise could firm the yen against a softer dollar. --- Oil is higher: Vessel on fire in Strait of Hormuz after incident near Oman, cause "unknown" (LOL) Stocks slammed: Earnings bloodbath: Intel crashes over 22%, Amazon over 12%. What's coming next? $6bn stolen in a hack: Chainalysis estimates $5.9B stolen in suspected Binance hack, nearly 4 times Bybit But ... at least Treasuries are bouncing! --- The AI selloff finally gave bond investors something to cheer, though with oil still climbing and central banks still hawkish, the celebration may be brief. Summary: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 4.90% and the 30-year to about 5.26%, both one-month lows The rally was driven by safe-haven buying amid renewed selling in AI stocks after Alphabet, Amazon and Intel results Strategists noted that AI concerns lowered yields and softened the dollar, unlike energy-driven risk-off episodes The dollar index edged down to around 101.8 but is on track for a second straight monthly gain The yen held near 157.8 ahead of the BoJ, with about an 80% chance of a December hike priced ANZ’s Khoon Goh sees this week’s central bank pauses as temporary, with more hikes possible in 2027 US Treasuries rallied as a fresh wave of selling in artificial intelligence stocks sent investors in search of safety, Reuters reported on Friday. The rally pushed benchmark yields to their lowest levels in more than a month and weighed on the US dollar. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to around 4.90%, while the 30-year yield dropped to about 5.26%, both at more than one-month lows. Bond yields move inversely to prices, so the declines reflect strong buying of US government debt. The rally was triggered by renewed concern over the cost of the AI boom. Results from Alphabet earlier in the week revived worries about AI spending and pulled broader stock markets lower. Disappointing results from Amazon and Intel after Thursday’s close added to the pressure. As equities sold off, safe-haven bonds became more attractive. Strategists noted that the pattern differed from recent bouts of market stress. An energy-driven risk-off episode would typically lift the dollar and push yields higher. This time, one Singapore-based strategist said, the US-focused AI concerns came with lower Treasury yields and a softer or subdued dollar. That suggests investors are treating the AI selloff as a US growth and earnings risk rather than an inflation shock. The lower yields weighed on the greenback. The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of major peers, edged down to around 101.8, although it remained on course for a second consecutive monthly gain. Elsewhere in currency markets, the yen was steady near 157.8 per dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. The central bank is expected to hold rates at 1.25% with a hawkish tone, and markets are pricing about an 80% chance of a hike in December. The euro was flat near $1.12 after touching its lowest level since May 2025 in the previous session. The Australian dollar held around $0.70, on track for a 1.2% gain in October. The relief for bond markets may prove limited. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand all held rates steady this week, but have signalled their tightening cycles are not over, with energy prices near multi-month highs. Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ, described the current pauses as temporary. He said the risk heading into 2027 is that elevated inflation could bring even more hikes. Brent crude is on track for its fourth straight monthly gain, the longest run in more than two years. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 30, 2026

Japan September factory output beats forecasts, but retail sales disappoint ahead of BoJ

The data give the BoJ evidence on both sides, so the reaction in the yen and Japanese government bonds is likely to be modest ahead of the policy decision and Outlook Report later in the day. Stronger output and upbeat production plans support Japanese industrials and exporters. Softer retail sales could weigh on consumer-facing stocks if the weakness persists. The production upgrade suggests manufacturers are looking through high energy costs for now, but further gains in oil prices tied to the Iran conflict would squeeze margins and household spending power at the same time. --- Earlier: Tokyo October CPI 2.8% (2.7% expected) Still to come: BoJ preview: hold at 1.25% expected, with 2% inflation call and dissent risk in focus --- Japan’s factories are firing up while its shoppers are holding back, leaving the BoJ with one more mixed signal on a crowded morning. Summary: September industrial output rose 2.2% m/m, beating the 1.3% forecast, after a 2.4% drop in August Output rose 1.9% y/y, slower than the prior 2.7% Manufacturers expect output to rise 5.1% in October (previously forecast at 3.1%) and 0.8% in November Retail sales fell 0.7% m/m, a second straight monthly decline Retail sales rose 2.3% y/y, short of the 3.3% expected and down from 2.9% The data land ahead of the BoJ decision, with a hold at 1.25% expected Japan’s factory output rebounded more strongly than expected in September, but retail sales fell short of forecasts. That gives the Bank of Japan a mixed picture of the economy just hours before it announces its policy decision on Friday. Industrial production rose 2.2% from August, well ahead of the median forecast for a 1.3% gain in a Reuters poll, and reversed much of the 2.4% drop recorded the previous month. Compared with a year earlier, output was up 1.9%, slower than the 2.7% annual pace in August. The outlook from manufacturers was notably upbeat. Companies surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect seasonally adjusted output to jump 5.1% in October, a sharp upgrade from the 3.1% increase they had forecast a month earlier, before rising a further 0.8% in November. If those plans are met, factory activity would gain considerable momentum heading into the final weeks of the year, although manufacturers’ forecasts are often revised once actual production data are released. Consumer spending was weaker. Retail sales fell 0.7% in September from August, a second consecutive monthly decline following a 1.2% drop in August. On an annual basis, sales rose 2.3%, short of the 3.3% expected and below the prior month’s 2.9% pace. The split between strong production and softer spending is likely to feature in the central bank’s assessment. Policymakers are widely expected to keep the policy rate at 1.25% later on Friday, with markets focused on whether the board signals a hike in December. Robust output and a firm upgrade to production plans would support the view that the economy can withstand further tightening. Slowing retail sales, on the other hand, point to pressure on household budgets from higher prices. The figures land on the same morning as Tokyo inflation data that showed core consumer prices in line with expectations. The BoJ’s quarterly Outlook Report, due later in the day, will show how policymakers weigh the latest signals on growth and inflation. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

Tokyo October CPI 2.8% (2.7% expected)

Tokyo CPI, October (y/y) Headline: 2.8% vs. 2.7% expected (prior 2.7%) Core (ex fresh food): 2.6% vs. 2.6% expected (prior 2.7%) Ex fresh food and energy: 2.4% vs. 2.7% expected (prior 2.7%) Labour market, September Unemployment rate: 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected (prior 2.5%) Jobs-to-applicants ratio: 1.19 vs. 1.18 expected (prior 1.18) Just the data this post, I'll have more to come on this separately. Background: Tokyo CPI preview: core inflation seen at 2.6% as BoJ weighs December hike Still to come: BoJ preview: hold at 1.25% expected, with 2% inflation call and dissent risk in focus This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

investingLive Americas market news wrap: ECB holds, sources report says December hike

Iran's Ghalibaf: Progress can only be achieved once the seven conditions have been agreed upon Trump: Iran war will be over very soon. Senator warns of 'insane' US plans ECB sources report: Policymakers see a December rate hike followed by a pause Lagarde: Growth should be underpinned in the near term ECB rate decision: No change in rates US initial jobless claims 194K vs 199K expected US September PCE core inflation +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected US GDP Advance for the 3rd quarter 3.4% vs 3.2% estimate Markets: WTI crude oil down 46-0cetns to $102.32 US 10-year yields down 6.3 bps to 4.98% GBP leads, AUD lags Gold down $44 to $4022 S&P 500 down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 1.4% The ECB decision to hold rates wasn't a surprise but the commentary overall had a hawkish bent, as Lagarde highlighted some flow-through from energy inflation. That was trumped by the usual 'ECB sources' reporting that flagged a December hike but said they would pause after that. The euro bounced around but ultimately reversed earlier losses to finish modestly higher. On the Iran front, a US Senator on the foreign relations committee warned of 'insane' war plans that are being drawn up to attack civilian infrastructure. That reversed some oil selling along with various other reports about attacks, compounded by Iran attacks on ships near Hormuz and Houthie attacks on Saudi facilities. In the stock market, the big loser was Alphabet, down 12.5% after earnings on signs that AI is eating into search. Despite that, the Nasdaq was only down 1.3% and the S&P 500 down just 0.3%. One big boost came from Eli Lilly, which rose 6.5% to a record after strong weight-loss results. Advancers also substantially outnumbered decliners and the Russell 2000 rose 0.7%, perhaps as the market determines that the FOMC was less-hawkish than expected. After hours through, it was brutal earnings reaction for Intel and Amazon, both down double digits on the earnings headlines. That's led to a decline in futures. RIP Patrick Stewart This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

Trump: Iran war will be over very soon. Senator warns of 'insane' US plans

Trump has said this at least 100 times since the war started in late February. He is an improviser, not a planner. Since it all went sideways, he has been looking for an elegant exit but can't find one. The blockade may be giving him some leverage but the pain of higher oil prices is making it an extremely unpopular war. Meanwhile, the UKMTO reports that a tanker has been struck by an unknown projectile whilst completing an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz. There are no reported injuries to the crew or environmental impact report at this time. The status quo can't continue indefinitely so it will either be escalation or negotiation. It looks like the US will now wait until after the midterms to attack, though some are speculating later in November when another aircraft carrier arrives. Oil product prices remain at sky high levels while crude oil is down 79 cents to $101.98 today. Here is an ominous message from Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy (D), who is also a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and sits on the defense appropriations subcommittee: Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election. Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane. It will not achieve objectives and will set off a new cycle of escalation. That's certainly ominous. He went onto say that it would undermine the US commitment to rule of law and would include attacks on civilian infrastructure. "I will just say this - their plan is insane ...it will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law. There has been open reporting as to the civilian infrastructure we may be targeting…. I think the plan they have developed will lead in my view to a prolongment and escalation of this war that will be devastating to our security interests" The leaks suggest attacks on: Electricity generation and transmission facilities Bridges and transportation networks Oil refineries and energy infrastructure Potentially other infrastructure essential to civilian life This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

Iran's Ghalibaf: Progress can only be achieved once the seven conditions have been agreed upon

Iran this week has repeated its 'seven conditions' several times and most of it was part of the agreement with the US from June 17. Here is a recap: 1. End military operations on all fronts. A permanent halt to attacks against Iran and allied groups, including in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and the Palestinian territories. 2. Release frozen Iranian assets. Unfreeze Iranian money held overseas, with approximately $12 billion identified in subsequent negotiations. 3. Lift the US naval blockade. End restrictions on Iranian ports, tankers and commercial shipping. 4. Remove economic and political sanctions. Restore Iran's ability to export oil and conduct international financial transactions. 5. Withdraw US naval and air forces from the region. End the American military deployments and operations that Tehran regards as threatening Iran. 6. Pay war reparations. Compensate Iran for damage inflicted during the 2025 and 2026 conflicts. 7. End threats and hostile interference. Stop military threats, hostile rhetoric and what Tehran considers interference in its internal affairs. The US is demanding action on the nuclear to file to go along with whatever it's prepared to do in terms of those conditions. For me, this doesn't sound like Iran is particularly worried about fresh US strikes but everyone talks tough before going to the negotiating table. WTI crude oil was last down $1.17 to $101.60. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

US treasury sells $44 billion of 7 year notes at a high yield of 4.894%

High yield: 4.894% WI level at the time of the auction: 4.894% Tail: 0.0 basis points vs the average of 0.2 basis points Bid to cover: 2.46X vs the average of 2.49X Directs: 32.82% vs the average of 24.2% Indirects: 57.77% vs the average of 63.7% Dealers: 9.41% vs the average of 12.1% Auction grade: B− A slightly above-average auction overall. The high yield matched the WI level, avoiding the modest tail typically seen. Bid to cover was marginally below average, while the bidder breakdown showed stronger direct participation offsetting softer indirect demand. Directs took 8.62 percentage points more than average, while indirects took 5.93 percentage points less. Dealers were left with 9.41%, below the 12.1% average—a constructive sign for end-investor demand. The absence of a tail and lower dealer takedown give the auction a modest positive tilt, although the softer bid to cover and indirect participation keep the grade in check. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

US September PCE core inflation +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected

Prior MoM +0.2% Core PCE +0.3% y/y vs +3.1% expected Prior was 3.0% y/y Headline PCE +3.6% y/y vs +3.6% expected (prior 3.4%) Deflator MoM +0.5% vs +0.5% expected (prior +0.3%) Consumer spending and income for September: Personal income +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +0.2% Personal spending +0.5% vs +0.6% expected. Prior month +0.9% Real personal spending 0.0% vs +0.5% prior The US dollar is near the highs of the day against the yen and Australian dollar but the price acton on this report, claims and GDP has been minimal. The focus is on AI after Google's earnings miss and big slump. As for this report, it's a reminder that headline inflation is a long ways from 2% but we will have to wait another month to see if it's broadening. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

US GDP Advance for the 3rd quarter 3.4% vs 3.2% estimate

Prior quarter 2,2% The details GDP: 3.4% vs 3.2% expected. Prior revised to 2.2% from 1.5%. Real final sales: 1.7% vs 2.0% expected. Prior 2.8% Consumer spending: 3.8%. Prior 3.8%. GDP deflator: 2.2% vs 3.5% expected. Prior 6.1% Core PCE prices: 2.5% vs 2.4% expected. Prior 3.3% PCE prices: 2.1% vs 2.6% expected. Prior 5.0% What drove the GDP increase? The 3.4% increase in Q3 GDP was supported by investment, consumer spending and government spending. Trade was the main drag, with exports falling and imports rising. Investment was the largest positive contributor, adding 3.27% to growth. That category includes business investment, housing and changes in inventories. Consumer spending added roughly 2.52%, reinforcing the importance of household demand to the expansion. Government spending added 0.90%, providing another source of support. Lower exports subtracted 0.68%, reflecting a decline in sales of US-produced goods and services abroad. Higher imports subtracted 2.64%. Imports are deducted because GDP measures domestic production, while spending on imported products is included elsewhere in the accounts. The takeaway is that domestic spending carried the economy while trade weighed heavily on growth. Investment was a major support, but the distinction between productive investment and inventory accumulation matters. With final sales growing more slowly than headline GDP, the sustainability of the inventory contribution will be something to watch. From the BEA: Behind the GDP increase: inventories, computers and consumer spending The BEA’s breakdown shows that inventory accumulation, computer equipment and consumer spending supported the 3.4% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, while trade weighed on growth. Investment: Growth was driven primarily by inventories and equipment. Wholesale businesses and manufacturers increased inventories, led by nondurable goods. Equipment spending was supported by computers and peripheral equipment. Consumer spending: Both services and goods increased. Health care, restaurant meals and accommodations led services spending, while prescription drugs were a major contributor to goods spending. Government spending: Federal nondefense spending accounted for more than the overall increase. However, the BEA highlighted an accounting effect from smaller Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil sales compared with Q2. That lifted measured government consumption, but the BEA said those sales have no direct effect on overall GDP, because they are reflected elsewhere in the accounts. Trade: Exports fell, led by petroleum and related products. Imports increased, with capital goods excluding autos the largest contributor (AI spending). Falling exports and rising imports both weighed on GDP. The details show solid consumer demand and strength in computer equipment spending, but inventories also played an important role. That helps explain why headline GDP outpaced final sales and leaves a question for coming quarters: will businesses sustain production as those inventories are sold? Overall Summary The US economy grew at a 3.4% annualized pace in Q3, according to the advance GDP figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was above the 3.2% consensus estimate and slightly stronger than the Atlanta Fed’s final 3.3% GDPNow forecast. Consumer spending remained healthy, growing 3.8%, matching the preceding quarter. The result supports Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s message at yesterday’s press conference that growth had strengthened. Warsh said first-half growth had been revised to 2.4% from 1.8%, with Q3 likely running above 3%, led by healthy consumer spending. However, the details were more mixed than the headline. Real final sales grew just 1.7%, below expectations and down from 2.8% previously. Final sales exclude inventory changes, so that gap indicates inventory accumulation helped lift headline GDP. Inflation cooled sharply from Q2, although core PCE prices at 2.5% were slightly above the 2.4% estimate. Quick analysis: Stronger growth, steady consumer spending and cooler inflation give the Fed some room to assess incoming data. The headline would normally support the dollar and Treasury yields, but weaker final sales and the softer broad inflation readings could temper that response. The key question is whether growth can sustain this pace without as much help from inventories. What this report measures: Gross domestic product, or GDP, measures the value of goods and services produced in the United States. These quarterly growth figures are adjusted for inflation and expressed at annualized rates. The advance estimate is the first reading and is subject to revision. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

US initial jobless claims 194K vs 199K expected

Prior 194K (revised to 195K) Continuing claims 1701K vs 1720K expected Prior 1728K (revised to 1722K) US initial jobless claims came in at 194K versus 199K expected, while continuing claims fell to 1.701 million against expectations of 1.720 million. The previous readings were revised to 195K and 1.722 million, respectively. US Jobless Claims measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits and provide a timely indicator of labour market conditions. Initial claims track new applications and offer insight into layoffs, while continuing claims measure the number of people still receiving benefits, providing clues about how easily unemployed workers find new jobs. The report points to continued labour market resilience, with both initial and continuing claims coming in below expectations. The decline in initial claims suggests that layoffs remain limited, while the drop in continuing claims indicates that people are finding jobs quicker. The data reinforces the picture of a resilient labour market. With economic activity remaining strong and persistent inflationary pressures, the Fed might need to step up its game and tighten policy faster. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

investingLive European session wrap: Stocks diverge as markets brace for US inflation, ECB and Amazon earnings

Headlines: US futures tumble as Alphabet earnings revive AI spending fears, Amazon is next in the firing line ECB president Lagarde set to step down from her position next February Crude oil remains capped by renewed US-Iran deal hopes, but upside risks persist Trump administration in ongoing talks for a temporary peace deal with Iran - Semafor Gold whipsaws on FOMC decision as near-term outlook turns more bullish amid a slow-moving Fed Economic data spotlight: Fed rate hike bets survived Warsh, but can they survive US PCE inflation? Google stock analysis after earnings: Is AI eating into search profits? Markets: CAD leads, AUD lags on the day Gold down 1.1% to $4,018 10-year Treasury yields down 2 bps to 5.02% WTI crude oil down 0.8% to $101.95 Bitcoin down 1.5% to $80,089 European equities mostly higher; S&P 500 futures -0.4% It wasn't the most exciting of post-Fed sessions as markets were not left much to work with after the events yesterday. Fed rate hike expectations for December remain largely intact, so that is not giving much reason for the dollar and Treasury yields to jump. And so all eyes are turning to Wall Street, after Alphabet reignited fears about AI spending in overshadowing Microsoft's strong earnings in the day before. While European stocks are holding steadier for the most part today, the negative weight on tech shares is pulling down broader risk sentiment and threatening to reverberate across more broadly. S&P 500 futures are down 0.4% with Nasdaq futures down 1.1% on the day. Meanwhile, oil prices are being pulled down slightly amid hopeful talks of peace between the US and Iran even though there is still the prospect of escalation in the Middle East after the midterm elections. WTI crude is down 0.8% to $101.95 but still keeping elevated as a whole for the time being. That is not leading to much comfort in the bond market, with 10-year Treasury yields still keeping around 5.02% on the day. At these levels, borrowing costs will also keep broader markets on edge as traders have to consider the "higher for longer" narrative with the Fed still poised to hike interest rates in December. In the major currencies space, the dollar is holding steadier but is mostly seeing light changes so far today. EUR/USD is down slightly by 0.1% to 1.1135 with USD/JPY up just 0.1% to 158.02 on the day. The euro and French bonds will be a focus point in the session ahead with the ECB policy decision coming up. But for broader markets and risk, all eyes will be on the US PCE inflation data next as well as Amazon earnings to steer the ship ahead of the final stretch this week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

Trump administration in ongoing talks for a temporary peace deal with Iran - Semafor

According to Semafor , the Trump administration is involved in discussions aimed at securing a temporary peace deal. Vice President JD Vance has reportedly sent a letter to Tehran in an effort to revive negotiations, although Trump downplayed the initiative and framed it around humanitarian needs. The diplomatic push comes alongside preparations for a potential resumption of hostilities. An administration official told Semafor that US forces could resume combat operations shortly after the midterm elections, with the military reportedly requiring only presidential authorization. However, there is no consensus within the administration on the merits of renewed strikes. Several officials remain skeptical about escalating the conflict, while Trump is reportedly the most open to military action, despite still having reservations. A diplomatic breakthrough could ease geopolitical risk and energy prices, while a renewed military escalation could reignite concerns over regional stability and disruptions to energy supplies. Oil prices dropped after the news and risk sentiment improved slightly, but keep in mind that there's no new information in the Semafor report as it just highlights the current state of affairs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

What are the main events for today?

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the ECB rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while maintaining its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, driven by energy prices, while core inflation showed more limited increases. Rising energy costs and the risk of second-round inflation effects remain hawkish risks but increased growth concerns and tighter credit conditions argue for caution. Markets will focus on any signals about further tightening, with the December rate hike probability now standing at roughly 64%. France is likely to dominate the press conference, with traders looking for clues on whether widening sovereign spreads and fiscal uncertainty could prompt a more dovish ECB stance or potential intervention through the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). A hawkish surprise is unlikely in the current context. AMERICAN SESSION In the American session, we have the US GDP, the US PCE and the US Jobless Claims data. The US Q3 GDP is expected at 3.2% vs 2.2% prior, but it's unlikely to change much for the Fed, as the central bank has already upgraded its growth assessment. The same can be said about the US Core PCE since it can be forecasted almost accurately using inputs from the CPI and PPI reports. That's why the CPI is always more important and the one that influences interest rate expectations the most. Nevertheless, the US Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 3.1% vs 3.0% prior, while the Core M/M mreasure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.2% prior. Initial Claims are expected at 198K vs 194K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1720K vs 1728K prior. The data hasn't been moving the markets for several months because the market got used to stable labour market conditions. I would expect this to continue unless we get a significant deterioration that increases growth concerns. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

Economic data spotlight: Fed rate hike bets survived Warsh, but can they survive US PCE inflation?

Fed chair Warsh talked and markets listened. But by the end of it all, everyone pretty much went home with the same hand that they were dealt with in looking to the next meeting in December. So much for a productive Fed meeting, eh? While yesterday's decision and press conference didn't exactly shake things up, today's US PCE inflation report might have a better shot at doing so. Traders are currently still pricing in roughly 84% odds of a 25 bps rate hike for December, not all too much changed from the roughly 88% odds before that. And with Warsh tossing the ball back to economic data to decide the state of play, we'll get to see whether the inflation numbers actually justify the market confidence. Here is what is expected for the September report later today: Headline monthly PCE: +0.5% m/m (Prior +0.3%) Headline annual PCE: +3.6% y/y (Prior +3.4%) Core monthly PCE: +0.3% m/m (Prior +0.2%) Core annual PCE: +3.1% y/y (Prior +3.0%) If meeting expectations, the numbers will only serve to reaffirm that inflation pressures are still remaining more stubborn. That is especially the case as they wil reflect the narrative that prices are still running comfortably above the Fed's 2% target. As is always the case, the core readings will be the more important ones to watch when it comes to inflation data. A hotter set of numbers will only reinforce the market pricing for December and could potentially trigger some jitters across broader market sentiment. On the flip side, a softer reading could get traders questioning whether they've become a little too comfortable with the idea of another hike. But looking at what is priced in, the balance of risks seem to be skewed towards a softer reading at this stage. Another hot inflation data will do little to really move market expectations for a December rate hike, considering that it is almost fully priced in already. But as for a softer report? Well, that might get traders to doubt themselves a little and bring about a stronger market reaction. Besides that, don't forget that we will also be getting the latest personal spending figures alongside the inflation numbers. With consumption expected to rise 0.5% on the month, any surprise there could further complicate the Fed's balancing act. So while yesterday's Fed meeting mainly reaffirmed market expectations for a December move, the PCE report today will offer up the first real test of whether traders will be vindicated for their pricing. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 29, 2026

investingLive Asia-Pacific market news: Oil eases on Vance’s Iran outreach

RBA set for fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% as banks flag risk of another move in February More on Samsung: shares slide up to 6.6% as shareholder-return plan is delayed to January US government builds $30bn stock portfolio across 43 deals in chips, minerals and quantum Alphabet slides over 9% after hours as search miss and $9bn cash burn overshadow Cloud Samsung Q3 operating profit jumps ninefold to record 107 trillion won on AI chip boom RBNZ’s Breman says chances of a December rate hike are high after surprise hold at 2.75% PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7147 (vs. estimate at 6.6596) The view from China: CITIC Securities still sees a 25bp Fed hike in December NZ business confidence rises to +53 as pricing intentions hit highest since May Oil - The UAE’s second Hormuz bypass pipeline gets its firm timing; early 2027 Peltz-led group offers $1.4bn to take Wendy’s private at $7.35 a share, a 20% premium Hong Kong holds base rate at 4.25%: why the HKMA always moves in lockstep with the Fed Microsoft sees $170bn capex in fiscal 2027 but says it will stay cash flow positive Gold heads for its biggest yearly drop in 11 years as the Iran war lifts yields and the dollar Strategy's bitcoin buying hinges on one number: STRC at $100 Recap: Fed holds at 3.75%-4% in 10-2 vote as Cook dissents for a hike, December move in focus US bitcoin reserve buying 'very soon'? What has to happen first ICYMI: Oracle jumps around 11% on $225bn 2030 revenue goal and $20bn cap on new funding UBS sees limited gold downside as three demand pillars set a floor near $4,000 investingLive Americas FX news wrap 28 Oct: Fed holds rates, yield curve steepens as Big Tech earnings diverge Vance writes to Iran hard-liner Rezaei to revive talks as Trump weighs new strikes Alphabet Q3: Google Cloud revenue jumps 103% but search and ad sales miss forecasts Microsoft Q1 beats as Azure grows 48% and capex lands $6bn below forecast Summary: Oil drifted lower after reports that Vice President Vance wrote to Iranian hard-liner Mohsen Rezaei at Trump’s direction to revive peace talks Some analysts said Trump’s remarks implied the letter touched on the US blockade or frozen Iranian funds Gold held above $4,000 an ounce RBNZ Governor Breman said the chances of a December hike are high, a day after a surprise hold; the NZ dollar was little changed New Zealand business confidence rose to +53, with pricing intentions at their highest since May The HKMA held its base rate at 4.25%, in step with the Fed Microsoft shares rose after hours and Alphabet fell sharply A Peltz-led group offered $1.4 billion to take Wendy’s private Samsung posted record Q3 profit but its shares fell as much as 6.6% after it delayed its shareholder-return plan The Kospi fell 2.8%, the Shanghai Composite lost 0.8%, and the Nikkei and Hang Seng were flat Oil and Iran Oil prices drifted lower during the Asian session after reports that the United States is making a fresh diplomatic push with Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President JD Vance wrote to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and one of the country’s most powerful hard-liners, in an attempt to revive peace negotiations. According to the report, the letter was sent at President Donald Trump’s direction, even as Trump has threatened to restart the war after next week’s midterm elections. Later reporting added detail that suggested a more determined effort. Some analysts said remarks Trump made to reporters implied the letter may have addressed either the US blockade of Iranian ports or the release of frozen Iranian funds, possibly around $6 billion held in Qatar that was originally freed for humanitarian imports. Neither point has been confirmed. ANZ cautioned that risks to oil prices remain elevated, citing repeated Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure. Gold Gold held above $4,000 an ounce. A Reuters poll published this week showed analysts cutting their 2026 forecast for a second straight quarter, citing high yields and a strong dollar linked to the Iran war, though they expect a recovery in 2027. New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said the chances of a December rate hike are high, adding that the whole committee agrees further increases are likely, though the timing is uncertain. Her comments came a day after the RBNZ surprised markets by holding the cash rate at 2.75%. The New Zealand dollar ended the session little changed. Separately, the ANZ Business Outlook survey showed business confidence rising to +53 in October, with the share of firms planning price increases at its highest since May. Hong Kong The Hong Kong Monetary Authority held its base rate at 4.25%, as expected, following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates steady. Under Hong Kong’s currency peg, the base rate is set 50 basis points above the lower end of the Fed funds target range. Company news Microsoft shares rose after hours after the company beat e...

NEWSOct 28, 2026

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 28 Oct: Fed holds rates, yield curve steepens as Big Tech earnings diverge

Vance writes to Iran hard-liner Rezaei to revive talks as Trump weighs new strikes Alphabet Q3: Google Cloud revenue jumps 103% but search and ad sales miss forecasts Microsoft Q1 beats as Azure grows 48% and capex lands $6bn below forecast The before and after. A look at the changes in forex, rates, stocks through the FOMC decision and press conference. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh: More information will help determine appropriate policy steps The full statement from the October 2026 FOMC rate decision FOMC decision Oct 28: Rates left unchanged Iran's Araghchi: Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed Crude oil extends to a session high of $103.53 as Iran concerns keep buyers in control BOC's Macklem: Our surveys show businesses are planning to pass on more of these cost increases The weekly oil inventory data shows a drawdown of -1.892M vs expectations of a 0.015M build. The full statement from the Bank of Canada rate decision for October 2026. Hikes by 25 basis points Bank of Canada rate decision: Hike to 2.50% UK budget: Growth forecasts cut as Healey unveils £15 billion fiscal buffer US Wholesale inventories 0.6% vs 0.5% estimate US September advance goods trade balance -134.9 billion vs -130.2 billion expected Morning Kickstart: Dollar mixed ahead of Fed, BoC and Big Tech earnings investingLive European session wrap: Stocks tread cautiously as Fed decision and big tech earnings loom The Fed left rates unchanged, with Chair Warsh delivering a clear message: Inflation remains too high, but the committee believes policy is starting to work and wants more information before deciding what comes next. That gave markets room to scale back the urgency of another immediate hike without embracing a move toward rate cuts. The dollar weakened during the decision and press conference, although its full-day performance remained mixed. Treasury yields told the more interesting story: the 2-year yield declined while longer yields rose, steepening the curve. U.S. stocks posted modest gains, while oil remained above $100, but did come off the high that reached $103.55 and gold advanced despite higher longer-term yields. InvestingLive’s before-and-after Fed comparison highlighted that divergence. investinglive.com After the closing bell, the focus shifted to earnings. Microsoft beat expectations, led by strong Azure growth. Alphabet delivered stronger-than-expected cloud revenue, but earnings, total revenue and several advertising measures fell short. Microsoft shares are trading higher by 4.31%, while Alphabet are going the other way with tumbling by nearly 10%. Foreign exchange: Dollar mixed as central-bank differences stand out The dollar ended mixed. It was strongest against the New Zealand dollar and weakest against the Australian dollar. EURUSD: 1.1155, +0.30%. USDJPY: 157.94, unchanged. GBPUSD: 1.3325, +0.17%. USDCHF: 0.8282, −0.10%. USDCAD: 1.3992, −0.40%. AUDUSD: 0.7055, +0.44%. NZDUSD: 0.5626, −0.95%. The EURUSD moved off the double bottom at 1.1113 and has extended to the falling 100 hour MA at 1.11746. That MA will be the upside target to get to an through along with the 200 hour MA to tilt the short term bias higher. Absent that, and the sellers are in full control. The contrast between Australia and New Zealand was particularly clear. Hotter Australian underlying inflation reinforced expectations for additional RBA tightening. The price of the AUDUSD is trading above and below the key 200 day MA going into the end of day close at 0.7055. The RBNZ, meanwhile, unexpectedly held its policy rate at 2.75% in a narrow 4–3 vote, disappointing traders positioned for a hike and weighing on the kiwi. investinglive.co m. Nevertheless, the price of the NZDUSD is off the low and trading near a swing area target betwwen 0.5625 to 0.5633. The Canadian dollar strengthened alongside a 25-basis-point Bank of Canada rate increase to 2.50% . The bank warned that inflation was becoming more persistent but said uncertainty warranted proceeding carefully with any additional tightening. investinglive.com U.S. Treasuries: Short yields ease, long yields rise The end-of-day readings for the US debt market shows: 2-year: 4.7245%, down 1.25 basis points. 5-year: 4.8657%, up 2.37 basis points. 10-year: 5.0404%, up 4.74 basis points. 30-year: 5.3577%, up 5.27 basis points. The curve steepened as the front end found some relief from Warsh’s willingness to wait, while longer maturities remained under pressure. That distinction matters. Less urgency for another near-term hike does not automatically translate into lower borrowing costs across the economy. With the 10-year yield above 5% and oil above $100, longer-term rates continued to present a challenge for housing, business financing and equity valuations. U.S. stocks: Modest gains, with Nasdaq 100 leading The closing levels for the major stocks indices are showing gains across the major benchmarks led by the Nasdaq 100 and the small cap Russell 2000. Dow industrial average: 52,...

NEWSOct 28, 2026

Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, October 29, 2026

Lower tier data only on the agenda for the session ahead. There are much-awiated earnings releases after the US RTH close, MSFT and Alphabet. (GOOGL) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 28, 2026

Qatar trying to convince Iran to allow UN nuclear inspectors - report

Axios' Barak Ravid is out with a new report: Mediators led by Qatar are trying to restart negotiations after the midterms Qataris working to convince Iran to allow nuclear inspectors in return for some sanctions relief Trump says "we need to finish the jobs through a deal or another way" The report says "A renewed bombing offensive appears likely shortly after the midterms without a last-minute deal", so this is framed as a last-ditch effort. I'd estimate that strikes are 85% priced in. The White House is telegraphing a short campaign, though how Iran responds might dictate what happens next. In addition, their reaction could come down to where and what the US strikes. The report says "an operation is expected to include a week of massive strikes on Iranian leadership, energy, nuclear and infrastructure targets." Neighbouring countries fear that Iran will retaliate on strikes on its infrastructure with strikes on theirs. There is a sequencing problem beyond Iran even considering giving up nuclear material. As Axios says "Qataris presented ideas for how to bridge the gap between the U.S. demand that Iran give up its enriched uranium stockpile and Iran's insistence that the U.S. first lift its naval blockade and release Iran's frozen funds." This is likely the seven-day proposal that's been floating around. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

NEWSOct 28, 2026

Iran's Araghchi: Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed

Post from Iran's foreign minister on twitter: While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. We remain in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of our 7-Day Plan in even less than a week. This is the first real confirmation of the seven-day plan, which could start as soon as Monday. That's more of a rumor than fact but there are some real diplomatic processes underway. Meanwhile, the US military is ramping up preparations for strikes so there's a carrot and stick approach here. I'd say the market is about 85% priced for strikes, so this is all seen as a long-shot. I wonder if Trump loses badly in the midterms -- in large part due to the war -- and concludes that the only way to salvage is legacy is regime change at any cost. Oil initially dipped on this but has mostly rebounded. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.